Monday, August 31, 2009

Halifax branch closures

I have to admit being just a little cynical when it comes to 'insiders' and 'informants', but this story rather makes sense in the grand scheme of things.

It also presents an opportunity to think about the future of Banking. Branch closures and job losses are very sad and unfortunate for those affected, especially when portrayed as a consequence of 'mismanaged' banks taking the opportunity to trim their organisations. Closing branches and laying off staff has an enormous negative impact, not just on the staff and their families, but also on many others - the cleaners of the branches, provisioners and maintenance contractors, but also customers who may no longer have the facility available locally.

However, banking has to evolve and as the twenty first century approaches its first double digit year, all sorts of forces are acting to make those changes happen. Not only the Banks management teams, regulators and Governments, but customers have an opportunity to ring the bells of change.
Branch closures are an inevitable consequence of progress as what was once a strictly face-to-face relationship between bank and customer, is replaced by customer to screen relationships. I certainly feel that for my generation, who have had to adopt technology, unlike later generations who have been born into it, I have happily traded my relationship from 'in person' to 'online'. The freedom internet banking allows is vastly more efficient and fulfilling than having to make time to go to a branch, stand in a queue and do what I need to do, with bits of paper, pens, books and someone not particularly interested in helping me achieve what I want to do.

Would I choose an online bank over a traditional one? Yes, I already have. It has to be the future for this industry, whether it happens as a consequence of the credit crunch or later.

Can Lloyds avoid increased Government ownership?

There have been rumblings for some time that Lloyds may be regretting not having taken the same route as Barclays, thus avoiding Government intervention, now looking more and more likely to increase as they scramble around trying to raise £15.6bn.
Watch this one with closely as it could get very interesting very soon:

Friday, August 28, 2009

Arrears increase amongst 'prime' borrowers.

Moodys (the credit rating agency) have reported an increase of arrears amongst 'prime' borrowers, doubling from the same period a year ago.
The important aspects to remember here are rising unemployment, across all sectors, borrowers coming off fixed rate terms onto lenders standard variable rates and the lack of re-mortgage options on the market.
The 500,000 borrowers 90 days plus in arrears forecast by the CML at the beginning of the year may not be reached in 2009, but expect a steady increase through the latter part of this year and something very close to the forecast next year as these factors take effect.

Biggest monthly leap in house prices for 5 years...

It is worth considering exactly who the buyers are that are currently stimulating the property market. From my agency sources across the UK, this is predominantly cash buyers and those re-entering the market, with large deposits to attract still reluctant lenders. The key to the the property market recovery is first time buyers, seemingly willing but not yet flavour of the month with lenders and without the 'knock on' effect they initiate, there is still some way to go in terms of a general recovery.



There is also the belief amongst property professionals and bankers alike that once the current property supply and buyers have been exhausted, a further blip downwards will occur.

Tesco the Bank...

When is a supermarket not a supermarket?
When it is a full retail Bank, of course.


Adopting a similar strategy to Virgin (who, funnily enough, also have a relationship with RBS, though Tesco recently bought out RBS' stake), Tesco have been building their credibility, educating customers, cementing relationships and gaining experience in the world of financial services for a number of years now.

Interestingly, both Virgin and Tesco have signalled their interest in 'the good bit' of Northern Rock (called the Bank Co. this is the deposit taking half of NR, the 'bad' half (debt) being the Asset Co.), which could be open to tenders by the end of the year if all goes to the Governments current plans for the nationalised bank.

The idea of huge brands leveraging their client base and expanding it through acquisition of 'complimentary' offerings, products or services is not new, but just how far should / can it go?

A book I am currently reading sheds some interesting light on this subject and is well worth a read to anyone interested:- Supercapitalism: The Battle for Democracy in an Age of Big Business by Robert Reich.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Legal Aid help at the 11th hour

This is very good to hear. Of course, the CAB or some other advice helpline should be the first port of call, but so few people realise there are people to run to:

http://www.morpethherald.co.uk/news/Easing-home-repossession-fears-for.5571170.jp

What this story also illustrates very nicely is that whilst short, or even longer term deferment of repossession is possible, if the reality is that the borrower really has no prospect of rehabilitating the debt, then it is only putting off the inevitable. But this time can be used to try and sell the property for enough to clear the debt, make alternative arrangements, or indeed, but time whilst a new job is found and payments are able to be made again.

Just how effective are the Government Mortgage Rescue Schemes?

Just how effective have the various Government Schemes to stop repossessions been? Find out below by following the link. This is put into perspective when considering 24,100 homes were repossessed in the first half of 2009.

Not such a comforting read if you thought the Government were going to save you from being repossessed.

The fact is that more needs to be done right now, if families are not going to have their homes taken away by the Banks who are responsible for the current economic climate.

Credibility Crunch

Credibility Crunch


Banking is not the first industry or sector to face a credibility crisis. Nor is it the first to nearly self-destruct, due to significant down prioritizing of the very thing that makes it strong; It is the scale of the consequences that make the credibility of banks so significant. However there is still much to learn from other credibility crises and how the players have responded.

Governments around the world have taken drastic action to shore up the financial credibility on which banks depend, but this will have only have a marginal effect on the reputation of individual banks and the banking sector as a whole. With intervention, Governments have assumed the credibility from the banks.....can Governments successfully transfer that credibility back to the market and how long will that take?

Governments themselves are not without responsibility for the Credit Crunch. For example the Community Reinvestment Act 1977 required banks to meet the credit needs of the "entire community". It became against the law not to lend. There was therefore more lending to those least able to repay. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (US Government sponsored mortgage giants) were encouraged to guarantee a wider range of loans in 1990's. Homeownership increased, more buyers drove prices up, making loans less affordable to the poor and 'requiring' even slacker lending standards.... Seeds were sown and banks looked to offload these assets quickly.

And of course we, the customers, are part of the equation too. Globally there are very different credit cultures: Japan's 125 year mortgages, Germany's absence of a house buying culture and general credit adverse nature (they insisted on the 500 Euro note!); Nordic countries strict bankruptcy laws (for life); America's no stigma to fail culture ; UK predominance of Credit Cards (125 Million Cards for 60 Million people vs Germany's 15 Million cards for 80 Million people)... And then we have Islamic Finance under which interest may not be charged. What is common is the lack of basic financial awareness among many banking customers internationally.

Banks - more than most rely on a reputation for probity and integrity. Credit is derived from 'credere' - to trust. Who would hand over their money to someone they did not trust? or trust to make a positive return? One strategy that will rebuild trust in the banking sector will be increased regulation by governments and international bodies.

However this alone is unlikely to be enough and banks may prefer to mitigate more draconian legislation by taking proactive action to rebuild credibility themselves, and thus, aid the process of transferring the temporary and artificially up-held credibility back to where it belongs.....with the market and the banks.

This paper explores ways in which others have responded to their own credibility crunch and how banks may be able to employ similar strategies and how those strategies might be implemented.

Pro Cycling - a cautionary tale

Just before the start of the Tour De France in 1998, an employee of the Festina Team was stopped on the border between France and Belgium. His car was found to be loaded with medical products that could be used to enhance the performance of athletes.

Up to that point riders, teams, sponsors, media, regulators, fans, governments and society at large had effectively condoned doping, by turning a blind eye to its practice. It was well known that past champions had used amphetamines and other stimulants to keep going and there was a tacit acceptance of this.

This acceptance of what they all knew to be wrong was protected by an ‘omerta’, a code of silence. That remained largely intact until the police intervened in July 1998.

Something had changed in the expectations of society. Whereas before July 1998 doping was an acceptable price that all involved were willing to pay, not only for success, but just to be at the table, after July 1998 it became increasingly unacceptable. Since July 1998 Pro Cycling has been in a protracted and damaging battle for credibility with fans, sponsors, the media, the authorities and society.

To begin with many teams were in denial that they had a problem. There was a little window dressing and a tightening of the code of silence, but for most it was business as usual.

With aching, painful slowness it has begun to dawn on most of the players that there will be no return to business as usual, that change has already happened. That they are no longer in the driving seat and they have quite some catching up to do.

What has changed is the expectations of society and once society’s expectations have changed there is no going back. Pro Cycling's resistance to change has made the process of change far longer and far more painful than it need have been.

Over the last few years we have seen the emergence of a new breed of cyclist and a new breed of team. Cyclists who wear their integrity with pride, support anti doping initiatives and openly condemn fellow riders who are caught cheating. Teams too have stepped up. There has been an emergence of explicitly clean teams who use transparent, independent oversight to ensure their credibility. There has also been a wave of emotional admissions of riders and ex-riders coming clean about their past.

The lesson for Banks

What went wrong for cycling was that they did not spot the changing standards that were expected of them until it was too late. This is analogous to the situation with banking; the credibility created by past greatness and achievement was slowly emptied without "filling the bottle". While everything was going well no one really questioned the culture of internal behaviour of banks - apart from the occasional “Fat Cat” headline and accompanying ineffectual murmuring of politicians.

Following the credit crunch the fat cat is firmly out of the bag and it will not go conveniently back into it. Societies expectations of banks have changed and they will not change back. There will be no return to “normal”.

What has made the credibility crisis in cycling longer and far more painful than it need have been, was the denial that there was even a problem to start with, and the sheer front with which teams and riders tried to return to normal. Those who saw the change as positive were outraged. A far more effective strategy would have been contrition, engagement with stakeholders and a transparent and explicit strategy for change. The crisis could have been over in 2 years instead of continuing after 10.

In the end what is finally making the difference for cycling is the cultural change of teams and riders. While banks, to a greater or lesser degree, understand and realize that they have a problem. And that this problem is self-inflicted. The path to recovery is far more uncertain and far more perilous. Their opportunity also lies in cultural innovation, to a way of being that is more in keeping with the morals and standards of today’s society. Because it is society which ultimately decides whether an industry, sector or individual institution is credible or not.

Moral movement

The morals and ethics of our society are not constant, they trend in a generally socially liberal direction (this is not the same as financially liberal). What was once acceptable is no longer acceptable; slavery, child labour, racism, homophobia for example. As more and more people are better educated this trend is accelerating.

Other sectors have been caught out by this moral movement. Many clothing companies have been caught out by the shift from cheap goods at any price to cheap goods as long as it does not involve child labour. Animal testing, fur farming, battery farming of chickens, excessive pesticide use, genetic modification of food, pollution of rivers, nuclear energy are all areas where whole sectors have been caught out by changes in the moral landscape of our society.

For the banking industry the moral shift we are seeing is away from profit at any price towards profit without gambling, profit without exploitation and profit with transparency.

The opportunity for Banks

As is often the case in these shifts there is a huge advantage for the first movers. The ones who proactively take the risk of doing something new and different. Except of course that in this situation the risk of doing something new and different is a far smaller risk than the risk of remaining in denial, not doing anything and just hoping it will all go away.

The first Banks to publicly acknowledge that there are things to learn and there might be better ways to be will have an advantage. The first banks to take steps towards transparency, integrity and authenticity will have an advantage. Banks that don’t move fast enough will be playing catch up for a very long time.

Authentic Banks

Authentic businesses are those which generate their profits through the pursuit of a profound and positive purpose. In the research for my book Authentic Business I came to the conclusion that authentic businesses spend, on average, up to 80% less on motivating people, both customers and staff, than other businesses. Authentic businesses also have impeccable credibility.

Authentic Banks exist - Zopa, Triodos and Grameen banks for example, but these are tiny players on the very margins of banking. The opportunity exists for a group of banking executives to embark on the authentic transformation of their bank.

To some extent this was trialled, with great success, by ANZ Bank in Australia. A few years ago they found themselves the least popular employer in Australia. They discovered that their unpopularity stemmed from same kind of moral movement. People were wanting their employers (and their banks) to stand for something they believed in.

ANZ performed a bottom up values led transformation and tripled their share price and became on of the most popular employers in Australia.

Values led transformation is powerful, but not as powerful as a purpose led transformation, which includes values as well. Bottom up transformation is nearly always more powerful than top down.

The opportunity lies in identifying the core motivations of a wide cross section of staff and using that core motivation to articulate the purpose of the bank. The purpose statement must inspire employees and deliver on established corporate objectives as well as delivering value for the wider community.

For example the opportunity exists for a mainstream bank to claim the "social role of banking" position. If money is the lubricant of our society then banks are the oil pumps (if you can forgive such a mechanical analogy). Credit Cards, loans, mortgages, savings accounts all have a vital social role as long as they are applied with wisdom.

Another available slot is for a bank position itself as a "financial coach", although it would be vital to do it without being perceived as either patronising or manipulative?

Imagine a bank providing free and unbiased education about finance with branding - but without any selling. This education could take numerous forms - the most obvious would be to ensure that all communication was clear, unbiased and easily understandable.

In this way the bank becomes a platform for employees to achieve something that they already believe in passionately. The requirement to motivate staff is turned on it’s head as they become fully engaged with the business.

Once the purpose is clear the project becomes one of identifying obstacles to it’s achievement and removing them. Once a team or business have a shared sense of purpose they are extremely motivated and quickly form teams to remove these obstacles. As the obstacles are removed the business becomes more and more authentic. The staff become more passionate and the customers more engaged.


Neil Crofts is the author of Authentic - how to make a living by being yourself and Authentic Business - how to set up and run your perfect business, he is also the founder of Authenticis a cultural innovations agency that helps businesses to profit from their authenticity.

neil@authenticis.com

Talking it up!

Welcome. To kick things off, here is a great response by Rob to a Press Release made earlier today.

From: rob@

Subject: Re: Assetz: Comment on Nationwide house price index

Date: 27 August 2009 12:26:06 GMT+02:00

To: S.L@


With all due respect, do you inhabit the same Universe as the rest of us??

The figures you're looking at are based on historically tiny numbers of transactions. If you know
anything about statistics, the smaller the sample, the larger the distortions. So what seems to be
happening here is that you're reading current tiny-sample trends, comparing them to large-
sample trends from two years ago, and seeing the mythical 'green shoots'.

The other thing you're failing to take into account (or perhaps ignoring) is that there has never,
ever been a V-shaped recovery from any recession in recorded history.

Then there's the continued toxicity in the banking system, massively low interest rates
subsidising us all, a possible devaluation of the dollar, etc. etc. etc.

I'm surprised you guys are not being a bit more responsible in what you put out.

Regards

Rob



On 27 Aug 2009, at 11:08, Sarah L wrote:

For immediate release - 27 August 2009
Stuart Law, Chief Executive of Assetz, comments on Nationwide's August 2009
House Price Index, released today:

"The doom mongers can no longer deny that all the evidence is pointing to a
recovery in the housing market, with Nationwide's figures showing the annual rate of
decline now standing at just -2.7% year on year.
"With these increasing signs of house price stability we should see more lenders re
entering the market and improved loan-to-values over the remainder of the
year. Overall house prices are poised for a return to positive annual growth by the end
of 2009, with a possible rise of 5% or even higher, as the shortage of homes grows
more severe and the competition among buyers for existing properties increases. "
-ENDS-

Notes to Editors

About Assetz plc

Assetz plc heads up a group of well-known and successful property investment and

development companies, delivering carefully selected UK and overseas property as well

as property funds, financial planning, education, finance and after-sales service. Assetz

offers expertise and peace of mind whether a buyer is seeking an investment or a

residential property.